多阶段任务系统任务持续能力数学评价模型研究

分析了多阶段任务系统(PMS)及任务可靠度、可信度和任务效能等任务持续能力评价参数。结合实际装备系统大部分属于可用马尔可夫过程进行描述的可修复系统的特点,为简化模型复杂程度提出了一些合理的假设条件。针对两状态PMS,通过分析其状态转移关系,从阶段任务成功概率和阶段任务间转换概率的概念出发,分析给出其计算方法。结合对可信度和任务效能等参数的分析结果,建立其计算模型,从而建立了多阶段任务系统任务持续能力数学评价模型。最后结合常见的“靶场打靶”任务,通过对比仿真结果进行了模型的实例验证。     

Integrated production scheduling and preventive maintenance planning for a single machine under a cumulative damage failure process

This paper finds the optimal integrated production schedule and preventive maintenance plan for a single machine exposed under a cumulative damage process, and investigates how the optimal preventive maintenance plan interacts with the optimal production schedule. The goal is to minimize the total tardiness. The optimal policy possesses the following properties: Under arbitrary maintenance plan when jobs have common processing time, and different due dates, the optimal production schedule is to order the jobs by earliest due date first rule; and when jobs have common due date and different processing times, the optimal production schedule is shortest processing time first. The optimal maintenance plan is of control limit type under any arbitrary production schedule when machine is exposed under a cumulative damage failure process. Numerical studies on the optimal maintenance control limit of the maintenance plan indicate that as the number of jobs to be scheduled increases, the effect of jobs due dates on the optimal maintenance control limit diminishes. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

基于智能Agent的军事后勤计划生成方法

军事后勤计划是一个复杂的过程,包括地理上分布的组织和信息的协同、繁杂的计算和分析.这使得在有限的时间内制定好后勤计划变得非常困难.基于Agent的后勤计划系统(LPS)是为了后勤计划者开发的支持系统.在LPS中用智能Agent建立军事后勤计划过程中的事务处理、组织或信息实体交互的模型,收集和分析相关信息,自动生成军事后勤计划.     

关于公安消防部队信息化建设整体规划的思考

对公安消防部队信息化建设的总体目标、建设思路、现状、发展战略重点及保障措施等方面提出了基本看法。     

无人机系统自主控制技术研究现状与发展趋势

无人机系统是未来进行信息对抗、夺取信息优势、实施火力打击的重要手段。"自主性"是无人机系统区别于有人机最重要的技术特征,实现无人机系统的自主控制,提高其智能程度,是无人机系统的重要发展趋势。对无人机系统自主控制问题进行了阐述,首先分析了无人机系统自主控制技术的发展需求,然后介绍了自主控制的概念和自主等级的划分;分析了无人机系统自主控制技术的研究现状,提出了无人机系统自主控制的关键技术问题,主要包括体系结构、感知与认知、规划与控制、协同与交互等;最后对无人机系统自主控制技术的发展趋势进行了展望。     

基于级间设计的人机联合探月方案

基于登月飞行器的级间组合设计方法对载人登月飞行器的构造进行设计,在级间方案的论证中分析了不同组装模式对运载火箭能力的需求,建立了航天员和机器人联合探测的载人登月方案。级间组合方法可为应转移飞行器和登月飞行器设计提供另一种思路,本文根据飞行器级间的不同组合方式对登月飞行器的质量规模进行了初步估算,并对比了不同飞行方案对运载火箭能力的需求,研究可为我国首次载人登月任务方案提供参考。     

基于CPN的TDRS操作规划建模与仿真

以中继卫星(Racking and Data Relay Satellite,TDRS)为研究对象,以有色Petri网(Colored Petri Net,CPN)为数学工具,根据自顶向下的原则和层次化建模思想,提出一种基于CPN的TDRS操作规划模型,该模型分为顶层模型、控制模型、前向链路数据接收任务与发送任务的操作规划模型和返向链路数据接收任务与发送任务的操作规划模型,有效地描述了TDRS的动态行为特性。最后,通过仿真实验得到了TDRS操作规划方案,验证了所建模型的有效性。与PDDL模型比较分析表明:所建模型可以有效引入TDRS的领域知识,能够有效提高求解效率。所建模型可以为TDRS操作规划方案的制定提供理论参考。     

多弹联合快速任务规划系统设计

简要分析了多弹联合快速任务规划的作战需求,提出了构建一套满足实时、快速、可视化、通用性要求的多弹联合快速任务规划系统的技术手段,阐述了其支持多种目标、多波次攻击以及多弹种联合任务规划的系统特性,最后介绍了系统的总体框架和软硬件组成。     

Making long-range planning work: the case of the US Army's 30-year strategic modernization plan

The extensive timespan of evolving assumptions about future adversaries, US military engagements, and technology inherent in the US Army's 30-year modernization strategy can overwhelm the management capacity of planners, and misdirect acquisition investments. Some military scholars have argued that long-range planning is futile due to the complexities of the global security environment. So how can the US Army manage the evolving assumptions inherent in its 30-year modernization strategy to ensure it remains a superior global force? This study will answer the above question by arguing that the US Army's 30-year modernization strategy, while emulative of a similar modernization approach in the threat-based planning environment of the Cold War, is viable if supported by a method and a tool that manage investments and planning assumptions.     

The contexts of strategy as a guide for defense planning in the Philippines

Efforts toward developing an independent and credible Philippine defense policy were revived when Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III was elected President of the Philippines in 2010. President Aquino renewed the military modernization program in 2012 and emphasized the necessity of a “minimum credible defense posture.” Given the modernization efforts of the government, this article aims to contribute to the development of the concept of minimum credible defense posture by exploring how theory contributes to defense planning. It argues that the contexts of strategy are useful in planning for national defense because these contexts can provide a conceptual framework for defense planners. It proceeds in three parts: the opening section reviews the literature on defense planning; the second surveys the context of developing strategies as discussed in the General Theory of Strategy; and the last provides a definition of minimum credible defense and applies the context of developing strategies to the case of the Philippines.